沙尘天气对北京市空气质量的影响及其预测预报

概述了北京市沙尘天气的分类、特征、判别方法,总结了2000—2002年沙尘天气对北京市空气质量的影响情况,提出了沙尘天气影响空气质量的短期(1～2d)预报方法。利用该方法预报了2002年4次主要沙尘天气过程,预报结果都比较准确。研究发现沙尘天气年际变化主要是受气候条件年际变化影响,提出根据气候条件年际变化预测来进行沙尘天气年际变化预测的初步方法。      

洋河水库蓝藻水华爆发预测影响因子研究

为了预测洋河水库富营养化变化趋势和蓝藻水华爆发的风险,对洋河水库水体进行采样,分析其环境质量.研究结果表明,近年来洋河水库叶绿素a含量处于高位,氮、磷含量不断上升,特别是总氮质量浓度在5 mg/L左右,主要以硝态氮的形式存在,富营养化程度不断加剧,具有大规模爆发蓝藻水华的风险.对洋河水库藻华爆发的环境条件进行分析,提出...     

基于可公度法的航材故障预测

介绍了可公度性的概念和可公度信息预测理论。应用可公度信息预测理论,以故障时间窗口期为研究对象,对航材故障预测进行了初步探索,进而建立了一种较为实用的预测模型,并且给出了具体算例,验证所建模型的科学性和有效性。通过与指数平滑法预测模型对比可看到可公度预测模型精度更高且计算模型更为简单,为航材故障次数预测提供了一种解决方案。进而可以更好地应用在实践当中,提高航材管理水平,保障飞行任务的完成。     

提高自动监控运维管理质量的若干思考

针对排污企业在线自动监控系统管理存在主体责任履行不到位,第三方运维企业人员流动性大且技术素质参差不齐等问题,对照污染源自动监控系统相关法律法规和标准,结合多年的污染源自动监控系统监督核查管理经验,提出排污企业应尽量安装同一品牌同一型号的自动监控设施、建立针对第三方的监督考核机制,运维企业应制定长期有效的管理机制、建立自动监控设施运行动态管理台账等建议,以提升企业自动监控系统管理水平,确保自动监控数据真实、合法、有效,为企业生态环境管理决策提供有力支持。     

一种新的时间序列预报方法及其应用

本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。     

A RAWLSIAN EVALUATION OF IRRIGATION DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper critically evaluates the nature of irrigation distribution in India using the Rawlsian criterion of equity in dis. tribution and estimates the performance of different states in India according to the Rawlsian notion of fairness in distribution. It is found that there is considerable inequality across farm-size groups in the distribution of irrigated areas in general and canal irrigated areas in particular, and that there are wide interstate differences in the levels of this inequality. Further, it is found that switching over to a Rawlsian based distribution of canal irrigation will help in reducing the levels of inequality in overall irrigation distribution in all states.     

应用马尔可夫链分析预测福建以林为主的土地利用趋势

土地利用状况的研究是国土整治及林业发展规划的重要研究内容,本文根据森林资源连续清查的资料,应用马尔可夫链理论,建立预测模型,分析、预测土壤利用的动态状况,提出宏观控制的对策,为土地利用规划,林业生产决策提供科学的方法与依据。     

应用BP神经网络预测城市需水量的探析

在对辽宁省营口市城市需水量预测中，采用BP人工神经网络方法对该市人均综合用水量进行预测。进而预测出城市需水量，取得了满意效果。从精度检验、数据类比和趋势分析等角度，论证了此种预测方法的可行性和有效性。     

高速公路建设项目水土流失预测方法研究

根据当前高速公路建设项目水土流失预测结果不准确的情况，分析容易使预测结果产生偏差的影响因素，并提出了相应的预测方法。     

Discrepant karyotypes after second- and third-trimester combined placentacentesis/amniocentesis

Cytogenetic data are presented from a total of 1306 consecutive pregnancies with successful diagnosis obtained from both chorionic villi after short-time culture (CVS-SC) and amniotic fluid cell cultures (AC); samples had been taken simultaneously at combined placentacentesis (placental biopsy) and amniocentesis during the second (92·8 per cent) and third (7·2 per cent) trimesters. Concordant results were obtained in 1218 pregnancies with a normal karyotype and in 62 pregnancies with an aberrant fetal karyotype. Discrepant, i. e. false-positive and false-negative, results were found in 26 cases (2 per cent). From these data the accuracy of CVS-SC, defined as the proportion of all correct diagnoses, is calculated to be 98 per cent. Three non-mosaic and 14 mosaic false-positive results obtained after CVS-SC could not be confirmed by AC. Related to 1235 true normal fetal karyotypes, the specificity of CVS-SC, i.e. the proportion of normal karyotypes correctly diagnosed, amounts to 98·6 per cent. In nine pregnancies, an aberrant fetal karyotype detected after AC was missed by CVS-SC. The sensitivity of CVS-SC, i.e. the proportion of abnormal fetuses correctly diagnosed (62 out of 71), amounts to 87·3 per cent in our study group.